With 36.5 percent votes and a flucuation of of 5.75 percent of votes, based on the data of the past elections and present alliances, a party can win this elections. It can be Karunanidhi’s DMK in alliance with the Congress or Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK, who had already shown its presence in the past two major elections.
AIADMK had swept the 2011 assembly polls and the national election in 2014. but since 1984 voters of Tamil Nadu have never voted for the same party .AIADMK and DMK have alternately won assembly elections.
A fall in vote share was observed by the parties who had won general elections in 2014 and have seen the reduced number of votes in the next assembly elections, a troubling trend for the AIADMK, that had won203 seats in 2011 and the equivalent of 217 assembly seats in the general elections 2 years ago.
Another important happening was observed this year was that there is a new third front, the People’s Welfare Front, made up of smaller parties led by Vijayakanth’s DMDK, and the PMK led by Anbumani Ramadoss former union minister which is contesting all 234 seats in Tamil Nadu.
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“This means that the IOU or Index of Opposition Unity has dropped sharply, and with votes getting split many ways a majority of 118 seats can be reached with only 36.5 per cent.”
On May 16, AIADMK with its minor allies heads into the upcoming elections and a share of vote in the range of 38 per cent to 44 per cent which is average 42 per cent , based on historical data and current alliances. Which means 195 seats.
Alliance of DMK-Congress has an average 31 per cent vote share, which means 46 seats. The third front has 14 per cent means two seats and others 13 per cent means nine seats.
However only a 3 per cent “swing away” from Jayalalithaa which is in favour of the DMK’s alliance, which means to 62 seats, a 5 per cent swing to 99 seats and a 5.75 per cent swing to 120 seats which would give it a majority, with the AIADMK getting 94 seats.
A 7 per cent, swing from the AIADMK to the DMK would mean the latter winning 143 seats and Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK receiving 70 seats. Most of the states do not see a swing of 7 per cent in vote from one election to another, but in Tamil Nadu, the average swing since 1984 has been 10 per cent.
Tamil Nadu elections are on May 16 and will be counted on May 19.